US economy remains under pressure on 6.17; rate cut expectations revive, gold advice issued

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I. Fundamental Analysis:

Last Friday evening, data released in the United States showed that the preliminary June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 65.6, significantly lower than the expected 72, plunging to its lowest in seven months. However, consumers' long-term inflation expectations experienced a slight rebound. The data indicates that although low-income households have seen significant wage growth, their budget remains tight amid persistently high prices despite slowing inflation. This is a major reason why many recent economic indicators in the U.S. have missed expectations.

Last week, the unexpected decline in various U.S. inflation data indicated continuing relief from inflationary pressures. According to the Fed's latest median economic forecast, there will only be one rate cut this year. However, the market is pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts of 25 basis points each, with the first expected as early as September. This is more aggressive than the Fed's dot plot predictions. Mild inflation data has overshadowed the Fed's hawkish stance, diminishing the importance of Fed guidance and providing a short-term rebound opportunity for gold.

II. Technical Analysis:

From the one-hour gold chart above, gold stabilized near 2288 after its lowest drop and then began to rebound. From the chart pattern, the second dip couldn't break the previous low, indicating a significant weakening in the downside momentum, increasing the chances of a price rebound. The MACD indicator shows that the dual lines are above the zero axis in the bullish area, indicating a strong bullish market. However, the dual lines are close to forming a bearish crossover, suggesting the need for a short-term dip. Therefore, consider buying on the dip, focusing on the important support near 2317.

Intraday Trading Strategy:

Long Position: Try to go long around 2317.2315, stop loss at 2310, target around 2327 or 2338.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

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