The rise in oil prices, OPEC+ cuts, and U.S. sanctions heighten supply tightening expectations.

Oil prices rose last Friday and Spot tradingare expected to rise for the second consecutive week, mainly driven by new U.S. sanctions on Iran and the latest production cut plans by the OPEC+ alliance of oil-producing countries. The new U.S. sanctions on Iran have strengthened market expectations of tighter crude oil supply, which, combined with production adjustments by OPEC+ member countries, has further boosted market sentiment.

Brent crude futures rose 0.2%, settling at $72.16 per barrel. U.S. crude futures rose 0.3%, settling at $68.28 per barrel. Last week, Brent crude rose 2.1%, and U.S. crude rose about 1.6%, marking the largest weekly increase so far this year. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that the U.S. tightening sanctions on Iran might make some market participants involved in transporting Iranian crude more cautious, further affecting the supply chain of the crude oil market.

The increase in oil prices is also supported by OPEC+'s recently announced production cut plans. This plan requires seven member countries to cut oil production in the future to make up for previous output exceeding quotas, with expected cuts ranging from 189,000 to 435,000 barrels per month until June 2026.

Additionally, industry insiders revealed that Kazakhstan's oil production hit a new high in March, further exceeding OPEC+'s production quotas. With the expansion of oil fields, Kazakhstan's oil production continues to climb, which may pose challenges to OPEC+'s production cut plans.

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